Editorial No. 1 / 2009

“As sure as the spring will follow the winter, prosperity and economic growth will follow recession.“

- Bo Bennett -

2008 has been a year of mixed feelings, with an optimistic start and a rather gloomy end.

However, shipping has always been a cyclical business - and a very emotional one - particularly when it came to rates and market shares. So all in all the latest developments as such are not unusual - even though the intensity at which they hit might make them seem so.

It is a fact that in summer a considerable number of newbuildings were phased onto the Asia-Europe routes. This took place during the a period marked by economic slowdown in China that was reinforced by the Olympic Games - but the extent in which this happened nobody had previously expected. So in consequence there was a gap of supply and demand.

Still, although growth might have slowed, we can still see an increase in volumes compared to last year: the projected ship utilisation on the two main trade routes out of Asia is going to be at least at 80% over the next couple of years.

The growth of the container trades in total will not be characterised by a double-digit increase anymore, however, experts still forecast a 3-4% growth rate. This is quite healthy figure - compared to a more or less stagnating economy in Europe and a predicted economic growth of 0.5% in Germany